Nova Scotia Buzz
Fiona expected to impact Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec with heavy rainfall and powerful hurricane force winds for the start of the weekend.
1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 p.m. ADT.
Location: 26.2 North 71.5 West.
About 950 km southwest of Bermuda.
Maximum sustained winds: 213 kilometres per hour.
Present movement: north at 19 kilometres per hour.
Minimum central pressure: 937 millibars.
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
This storm is shaping up to be a potentially severe event for Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec. Numerous weather models are quite consistent in their prediction of what we call a deep hybrid low pressure system, possessing both tropical and intense winter storm-type properties (but with very heavy rainfall and severe winds).
The latest forecast guidance brings hurricane Fiona off-shore to the south of Nova Scotia Friday night, passing through eastern Nova Scotia and Cape Breton Saturday, and then reaching the Lower Quebec North Shore and Southeastern Labrador early Sunday. Severe winds and rainfall will have major impacts for eastern Prince Edward Island, eastern Nova Scotia, western Newfoundland, eastern Quebec, and southeastern Labrador. There will also be large waves, especially for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Finally, there is a high likelihood of storm surge for parts of Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and western Newfoundland.
a. Wind.
Most regions will experience some hurricane force winds. These severe winds will begin impacting the region late Friday and will continue on Saturday. Similar cyclones of this nature have produced structural damage to buildings. Construction sites may be particularly vulnerable. Wind impacts will likely be enhanced by foliage on the trees, potentially causing prolonged utility outages
b. Rainfall.
Rainfall will be significant, especially north and west of Fiona’s track, where heavy rain could lead to flooding. The highest rainfall amounts are likely for eastern Nova Scotia, southwestern Newfoundland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence region. Forecast guidance is suggesting widespread amounts of 100 to 200 mm, but closer to the path of Fiona, more than 200 mm is likely. Some districts have received large quantities of rain recently, and excessive runoff may exacerbate the flooding potential.
c. Surge/Waves.
There will also be some rough and pounding surf, especially for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large waves will reach the eastern shore of Nova Scotia Friday night and build to more than 10 metres. These waves will likely reach southern Newfoundland by Saturday morning. Some of the waves over eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence could be higher than 7 metres. Waves will break higher along some of the coastlines, and dangerous rip currents are likely. Storm surge will also be a threat for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, including the Northumberland Strait, the Gulf of St. Lawrence region including Iles-de-la-Madeleine, and southwest Newfoundland, but it is too early to provide details on which portions of the coastline may be affected the most.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Hurricane force southeasterlies should spread into Scotian Slope waters Friday evening, and these hurricane force southeasterlies will persist near and south of the track. As the storm moves into the Maritimes, storm to hurricane force northwesterlies will likely develop behind it. Waves in excess of 12 metres should form south and east of the hurricane track, beginning Friday night. These large waves will likely reach the south coast of Newfoundland early Saturday, and parts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence later in the day.
